RetireOdds

Every retirement decision,
tax-optimized.

RetireOdds is a deterministic financial ledger for retirement planning. Model taxable, tax-deferred and Roth accounts, RMDs, healthcare, state and federal taxes, life events and spending year by year.

Open your ledger → 30 days free · no credit card
Exhibit A — the Ledger in motion Working years → retirement → Medicare → RMDs

Built for iPhone.

The full planner — Ledger, taxes, healthcare and Monte Carlo odds — native on iPhone.

Download on theApp Store

30 days free · no credit card

Encrypted at restAES-256, HTTPS only.
Passkey sign-inNo password to steal.
No bank connectionsCSV import — we never hold credentials.
Your data is yoursNo trackers; delete everything anytime.
Mayur Kamat, founder of RetireOdds

Built by Mayur Kamat — a product leader from Binance, N26, Google, Microsoft, Agoda and Bybit. Read why RetireOdds exists →

Estimate this year’s tax. Plan the next payment.

Retirement tax planning should not start decades from now. RetireOdds models your current-year federal income tax from the same plan as your long-term projection, using confirmed income, conversions, Social Security, credits and withholding. It includes NIIT where applicable and compares 90% of this year’s estimate with the eligible prior-year safe harbor.

This is a payment plan, not just a lifetime tax total. Confirmed credits and withholding stay separate from amounts you still plan to send. Values depend on confirmed inputs; state tax is excluded from this federal view.

Exhibit B — the quarter in front of you2026 federal · illustrative
$42,000
Modeled current-year federal tax
Planning estimate · includes NIIT · excludes state tax
Modeled current-year federal tax incl. NIIT42,000
90% current-year safe harbor37,800
Prior-year safe harbor · confirmed36,000
Selected annual payment target36,000
Federal withholding · year to date20,000
Estimated payments recorded8,000
Next installment gap · Q3 (due Sep 15, 2026)4,000
Current year, not a lifetime total

See the federal estimate for this year and the next quarterly payment in front of you.

Two safe-harbor checks

Compare 90% of the current-year estimate with the prior-year target you confirmed.

Payment timing you can act on

Track withholding and estimated payments against quarterly due dates.

Safe-harbor target is not final tax due. No penalties or annualized-income method are calculated here; planning information, not tax advice.

A book of record, not a black-box score.

Start with clean income, wealth and tax inputs. The Ledger carries them forward year by year — opening balance, money in, taxes, withdrawals and closing balance — so you can see what is happening before you ask what might happen.

Exhibit C — the opening positionReconciled · 2026
$2,480,000
Money coming in148,000
Taxes + healthcare−42,400
Portfolio funding76,000
Closing balance · 20292,495,000
Exhibit D — one plan, read as a ledger Illustrative · not a projection
YearMoney inTaxes + healthSpendingClosing balance In the margin
2026age 61148,000−42,400−76,0002,495,000Last working year — reconciled to the dollar.
20276212,400−8,640−92,0002,468,000Retires. Roth conversions begin — filling the 22% bracket.
20286312,800−8,640−92,0002,489,000
20296413,100−5,580−94,0002,522,000Conversion trimmed to keep the ACA subsidy.
20306513,600−9,900−94,0002,561,000Medicare begins — premiums replace ACA.
20326759,800−11,300−96,0002,650,000Social Security claimed at 67.
203873117,400−21,700−104,0002,918,000First required distribution — planned for, not a surprise.
⋮   every year in between, carried forward the same way
205590Funded ✓Every year funded, including the last.
Base plan: deterministic — no hidden probability Then Monte Carlo: 1,000 market paths on top
A deterministic base plan

One repeatable Ledger run. No hidden probability in the answer you use to make a decision.

Tax rules you can follow

Brackets, Social Security, RMDs, ACA and Medicare stay visible instead of collapsing into one flat rate.

Monte Carlo on top

Once the base plan makes sense, run randomized market paths to explore what could change.

Find the years worth converting.

The window between retiring and required distributions is often the lowest-tax stretch of your life. RetireOdds prices a year-by-year conversion ladder against everything it touches — not just this year's bracket.

Fill a bracket, or a MAGI ceiling
Convert up to the top of a chosen bracket, hold under a MAGI limit, or set a fixed annual amount — then see the ladder year by year.
The real cost, not just the tax
Conversions lift MAGI, which can cost ACA subsidy before 65 and push Medicare IRMAA on its two-year lookback. Both are priced into the same projection.
Measured against doing nothing
Every ladder is charted against a no-conversion baseline, with required distributions and remaining taxable balances shown side by side.
Read the Roth conversion guide
Exhibit E — a conversion ladderFill to 22% · window 62 → 72
−$114,200 lifetime tax vs. doing nothing
AgeConvertTaxMAGI
6248,0008,64071,200
6348,0008,64071,900
6431,0005,58058,400
65——44,100
73——52,800
Pre-65 amounts capped to manage the ACA subsidy. RMDs from 73

See your own conversion window.

Your accounts, your brackets, your ACA and IRMAA thresholds — priced in minutes.

Start your free trial → 30 days free · no credit card

Test a life change without touching your plan.

Exhibit F — scenario draft: “Career break, then downsize”Illustrative
Life eventsCareer break at 52 · home purchase at 582 events
MilestonesAnchor events to retirement or Social Security—
Spending flexTrim discretionary spending after a weak yearOn
Savings orderReserve, debt, employer match, then overflow—
TransfersAccount moves and Roth conversions—
Age 48Retire 6290

Compose a full scenario — events, policies and timing — on an isolated copy of your plan. Your Ledger only changes when you make a confirmed financial action, never because you explored an idea.

Five kinds of change, one scenario
Life events, milestones, spending flexibility, savings priority and account transfers — combined, not one at a time.
Months matter
Enter the month something starts or ends. Exact months are prorated into the same annual engine your Ledger uses, so a scenario stays comparable to your live plan.
Compared on identical market paths
Saving freezes a comparison on the same seeded returns, so the difference you see is the decision — not luck.
Read the What If guide

A retirement answer is only as good as the model behind it.

You should not have to trust a probability you cannot explain. The Ledger shows the facts, rules and connected effects first; simulations come after.

1Ledger first, simulation second.

Your base plan is deterministic: a year-by-year book of balances, income, withdrawals and tax. Monte Carlo then explores what happens when returns vary.

2Real tax and healthcare rules.

Federal brackets, Social Security taxation, RMDs, ACA subsidies, Medicare and account types — taxable, tax-deferred, Roth — modeled year by year.

3A strict definition of success.

A path fails if it can't fund your spending in any single year — including the last. No partial credit for almost making it.

4Every assumption is yours.

Returns, volatility, inflation and withdrawals are editable, with sensible defaults shown — nothing hidden in the model.

Read the full methodology
01Create your account

Create a passkey and add your household basics.

02Bring your holdings

Upload brokerage CSVs; we detect the format.

03See your plan

Review your Ledger and run your first projection — minutes, not an afternoon.

Try everything free for 30 days.

No card up front. Nothing charged when the trial ends — you choose what happens next.

The calculatorNo sign-up. Run a quick Monte Carlo with a few inputs — 1,000 paths, editable assumptions, nothing stored.
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LifetimeEverything, forever. Pay once after your trial — less than an hour of advisory fees. Full planner + iOS app, all future updates.Best value · until Sep 30, 2026
$199once
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YearlySame product, smaller commitment. Cancel anytime and keep your data.
$69/year
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Every plan includes the Ledger, taxes, healthcare + Roth planning. 30-day trial · no credit card · your data stays intact whichever you choose.
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Take the Ledger with you.

The full planner — your Ledger, tax plan, healthcare and Monte Carlo odds — native on iPhone.

Download on theApp Store

Questions, answered.

Do you connect to my bank or brokerage?

No — and that's deliberate. You import positions and transactions from CSV files instead, so we never hold your bank or brokerage credentials and can never move your money. Live prices come from public market data.

How is my data protected?

Your data is encrypted at rest with AES-256 and in transit with HTTPS. Sign-in uses passkeys — your fingerprint, face or device PIN — so there's no password to phish. There are no third-party trackers, and you can permanently delete your account and all of its data anytime. Details are in our privacy policy.

What happens when my free trial ends?

Nothing is charged — we don't take a card for the trial. When the 30 days are up you choose: lifetime access for a one-time $199 (available until Sep 30, 2026) or $69/year. Your data stays intact either way.

How accurate is the simulation?

Each result runs 1,000 randomized market paths against your real accounts, withdrawals and taxes, with return and volatility assumptions derived from your actual allocation — and every assumption is editable. No model predicts the future, but you can read exactly how ours works on the methodology page.

Is this financial advice?

No. RetireOdds is an educational planning tool — it shows you the consequences of your own assumptions. It is not a registered investment advisor and doesn't recommend specific investments. For decisions about your money, talk to a qualified professional.

Build the Ledger you can trust.

See your taxes, healthcare and Roth decisions year by year — 30-day free trial, no card. Then lifetime $199 (until Sep 30, 2026) or $69/year.

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